Reform UK endured its toughest night since the 2024 general election, with a leading pollster warning the party now faces a “very hard” road to power.
Andy Burnham secured a commanding victory in the Makerfield by-election, defeating Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said the by-election was a major setback for Nigel Farage’s party. He noted there was “barely any” rise in Reform’s vote share in Makerfield.
Labour comfortably held onto a seat that had been one of Reform’s strongest second-place finishes in 2024.
Meanwhile, Restore Britain picked up seven per cent of the vote in Makerfield. Party leader Rupert Lowe said the result showed Restore was “here to stay.”
“This is a huge step forward for our party,” he said.
Richard Tice, Reform UK’s deputy leader, told BBC that some Reform supporters had backed Burnham because they believed he had the best chance of removing Keir Starmer.
He argued that many voters in Labour heartlands were now voting mainly to push out the Prime Minister.
In the Aberdeen South by-election, Conservative candidate Douglas Lumsden won a contest widely seen as a referendum on North Sea oil.
Tryl said the Conservatives had shown “signs of life — and even momentum — in the battle for the right” with that win.
He added that if similar results were repeated elsewhere in Britain’s fragmented political landscape, Reform’s chances of reaching government would become “very, very hard.”
The Conservatives described Reform’s performance in Makerfield as “disastrous,” despite securing just over two per cent of the vote themselves.
A party spokesman said: “There’s no hiding from the fact that this is a disastrous result for Reform. Makerfield was one of their top target seats, yet despite throwing everything at it, they failed to win.”
Their candidate, Michael Winstanley, secured 2.2 per cent of the vote — the second-lowest Tory vote share in a Westminster by-election since the Second World War.
Their worst result came only months earlier in February’s Gorton and Denton by-election, where they managed just 1.9 per cent.
Despite the loss, Kenyon’s 35.4 per cent vote share marked Reform’s second-best performance in a Westminster by-election, just behind the party’s result in Runcorn and Helsby, where Sarah Pochin won 38.7 per cent.
The Conservatives also managed to take council seats from Reform in two Essex councils.
Reform’s vote share dropped by 15.3 percentage points in a seat controlled by Reform-run Essex County Council. At Rochford District Council, another Reform stronghold, support fell by 14.9 points.
James Cleverly said: “When people see what Reform is like in office, they change their minds.”
Despite Labour’s strong win in Makerfield, the party’s vote share fell in every other by-election across the country.
In Scotland’s two Westminster contests, Labour suffered losses close to 20 points. The party dropped 19.4 points in Aberdeen South and 18.33 points in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
Labour also saw a 14.4-point decline in a Wrexham council seat and nearly a 15-point drop in Hillington.
Even in Moorside, the only ward Labour won on the night at Bury Council, the party’s vote share still fell by 4.5 points.
