Sir Keir Starmer is reportedly bracing for a wave of ministerial resignations after next week’s Makerfield by-election, with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham widely expected to win the seat and potentially position himself for a leadership challenge.
Internal polling from Labour’s campaign team in the North West suggests Burnham is on course to beat Reform UK, dealing what party insiders describe as a damaging setback for Nigel Farage’s party.
The vote is scheduled for Thursday, with results due in the early hours of Friday, June 19.
A number of cabinet and junior ministers are said to be considering stepping down in the aftermath, with some drawing comparisons to the string of resignations that helped force Boris Johnson out of office.
One Labour source told The Independent: “The data shows the biggest reason people are voting for Andy is to get rid of Starmer.”
Burnham has already begun shaping what a future government team could look like, speaking to potential allies about senior roles in anticipation of a possible move into Westminster and a leadership bid.
Names including Louise Haigh and deputy leader Lucy Powell are being linked with possible cabinet positions under a future Burnham-led administration.
By contrast, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy and Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds are reportedly among those who could be removed, with allies of Burnham blaming Reynolds for past tensions during his attempted parliamentary return.
Burnham has also indicated he would restore suspended MP Karl Turner, who has been critical of Lammy’s reforms on jury trials.
Behind the scenes, Lucy Powell is said to be offering reassurance to colleagues, while Angela Rayner has been working to calm nerves over a possible transition.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is also being closely watched, with reports she has already urged the Prime Minister, along with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, to consider stepping aside.
Several ministers are understood to be weighing up their positions, although most are expected to wait until after the Makerfield result is announced.
Liverpool Riverside MP Kim Johnson, a Burnham supporter, said: “It doesn’t look good for Starmer. Everyone is waiting for next week — he should just stand down.”
Another Labour MP said there would likely be no immediate moves before Thursday, but pressure could quickly build on the Prime Minister afterwards.
A third MP was even more blunt, saying: “It’s the end of the road for Starmer. We’re just counting down.”
However, one Burnham ally questioned whether a coordinated resignation strategy would hold, suggesting some ministers may delay leaving to keep their positions and salaries for longer.
In recent days, Burnham has also set out a broader policy agenda, including shifting spending from welfare towards defence and increasing state involvement in key utilities.
He has said he is “not squeamish” about cutting the benefits bill to fund defence priorities, arguing for a stronger focus on helping people into work rather than short-term reductions.
He has also suggested nationalising water companies such as Thames Water could be considered if he reached Downing Street, alongside reforms to the energy grid.
Other proposals include a one-year freeze on private rents and a national cap on bus fares to help with living costs.
Burnham has also pushed for changes to government procurement rules so contracts prioritise UK jobs and social value, pointing to past transport manufacturing deals secured in Falkirk and Ballymena during his time as mayor.
