A shock new poll suggests Labour under Andy Burnham would edge ahead of Reform UK, though any so-called “Burnham bounce” appears extremely narrow.
The BMG Research survey, carried out after Keir Starmer announced on Monday that he would step down, points to a noticeable boost in Labour’s voting numbers under Burnham’s leadership.
Beyond the headline figures, the former Greater Manchester mayor performs better than Nigel Farage across a range of personal qualities and leadership measures.
Still, researchers warned against overinterpreting the poll, describing Burnham’s advantage as “wafer thin” and stressing that neither Labour nor Reform would be close to winning enough seats to govern alone.
With Burnham leading Labour, the party rises to 27 per cent in the polling, putting it just ahead of Reform for the first time in quite some time.
Jack Curry, a pollster at BMG Research, said there is a clear “Burnham effect” but urged caution.
“The key point is that the bounce is wafer-thin,” he told the i Paper. “Burnham’s lead over Reform is only one point, and on these figures no party is anywhere near a working majority.”
When translated into seats, Labour and Reform would be almost neck and neck, with both still more than 100 seats short of what’s needed to form a government on their own.
“A leadership change may shake things up, but it doesn’t automatically put Labour on course for victory,” Curry added.
The polling also presents a difficult picture for Farage in direct comparisons with Burnham.
“Head-to-head against Nigel Farage, Burnham comes out ahead on every attribute we tested — from competence and honesty to representing Britain internationally,” Curry said.
On competence, 41 per cent backed Burnham, compared with 25 per cent for Farage.
A similar gap appeared when voters were asked who better understands ordinary people, with Burnham again leading 41 to 25.
Burnham also held strong leads on authenticity and honesty, scoring 40 and 38 per cent respectively, compared with Farage’s 25 and 23.
One of the more eye-catching findings was the so-called pint test, where 34 per cent said they’d rather have a drink with Burnham, while 28 per cent chose Farage.
The BMG findings also point to tactical voting as a potential problem for Reform.
Most Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green voters said they would be willing to vote strategically, while Conservative and Reform supporters were less likely to do so.
Recent by-elections have shown this trend clearly.
Burnham’s dominant win in Makerfield last week — where he secured more votes than all rival candidates combined — was partly credited to tactical voting, as Liberal Democrat and Green support fell away to block Reform.
Similar patterns saw Reform lose to the Greens in Gorton and Denton, and to Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly.
However, Curry warned Burnham would still inherit a restless Labour Party, noting that around a third of Labour’s 2024 voters want an early general election no matter who takes over as leader.
